United States X1

Is the spread narrowing for the right reason? X1c

Your own words: “If the spread narrows because the SA 10-year yields are falling while US yields remain stable, that’s extraordinarily good for SA investments. It’s counterintuitive.” A single spread line cannot express that — the same number can mean opposite things — so the legs sit above the spread on a shared axis, and reading downward is reading the cause.

–Neutral 374bps at the 2026-10-28 join, quoted from scripts/derived.mjs: SA 8.79%, US 5.05%, both legs on the same day; 8bps narrower than the 382bps of the 27 October join (SA -2bps, US +6bps). At the join the week is 2bps narrower (from 376bps on 21 October; SA -10bps, US -8bps); one month 10bps narrower (from 384bps on 28 September; SA -29bps, US -19bps); twelve months 164bps narrower (from 538bps on 28 October 2025; SA -58bps, US +106bps). Neutral holds, but this is the closest the row has come to the shape you described as extraordinarily good. On Wednesday your yield fell while America's rose, and the spread narrowed eight basis points for that reason alone. Over the month the spread is narrower for the first time in weeks, and South Africa's fall did more of it than America's: 29 basis points against 19. What stops us calling it bullish is that both yields are falling over the month, so America is not holding steady, and the last time a single day gave this shape, on 21 October, it reversed the next session. Over the year most of the narrowing is still America's rise, 106 of 164bps. If the month keeps narrowing with your yield doing the work while America's holds or rises, we will call it.

Are US rates a tailwind or a headwind? X1a

▼Bearish 3.88% through Wednesday 28 October, level on the day, the week and the month, holding at the rate set by the 16 September rise to a 3.75–4% target range. Twelve months reads 24bps lower, from 4.12%. Bearish holds. A tightening cycle has begun, and that is a headwind for every emerging-market asset you hold. The rate has not come back down since the September rise. The long yield closed Wednesday at 5.05%, 1.17 points above the policy rate, and it is still lower than a month ago (see that row).

What are US equities doing? X1b

▲Bullish 7,743.98 on Wednesday 28 October is still the latest close we hold; our source had not published Thursday's close when it was read tonight. That print was +0.28% on the day from Tuesday's 7,722.60, a third higher session. Against the Wednesday before it reads -0.17% from 7,757.17, one month +0.78% from 7,683.69 on 28 September and twelve months +12.38% from 6,890.89; 0.96% below the record close of 7,818.93 on 6 October. Bullish holds on the same print as last night, because there is no new one. The rule is the month positive on the price, and it is: up 0.78% on the month, and Wednesday's close is above 25 September's 7,743.41 as well, so the call does not rest on the calendar roll alone. The week is fractionally lower, so this is still a thin bullish call. A close below 7,683.69 at the present comparison would take it back to neutral; Thursday's close will be read tomorrow.