SOUNDINGS

A daily reading of the South African investment case

The read, 30 Aug 2026

Fixed Investment (GFCF) as % of GDP D2
13.20%
Bearish
SA–US 10-Year Yield Spread X1c
409bps
Bullish

United States X1

Is the United States a tailwind or a headwind — and is the SA–US spread narrowing for the right reason?

Horizon

Is the spread narrowing for the right reason? X1c

His own words: “If the spread narrows because the SA 10-year yields are falling while US yields remain stable, that’s extraordinarily good for SA investments. It’s counterintuitive.” A single spread line cannot express that — the same number can mean opposite things — so the legs sit above the spread on a shared axis, and reading downward is reading the cause.

The two legs% yield
SA 10-yearUS 10-year
4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%8.8%4.7%
The spreadbasis points
400450500550600409Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26
Table view — The two legs
DateSA 10-yearUS 10-year
27 Aug 20268.76%4.67%
26 Aug 20268.70%4.66%
25 Aug 20268.81%4.64%
24 Aug 20268.86%4.70%
21 Aug 20268.85%4.74%
20 Aug 20268.80%4.69%
19 Aug 20268.81%4.65%
18 Aug 20268.83%4.71%
17 Aug 20268.75%4.72%
14 Aug 20268.71%4.68%
13 Aug 20268.71%4.63%
12 Aug 20268.70%4.68%
11 Aug 20268.67%4.70%
7 Aug 20268.64%4.65%
6 Aug 20268.60%4.69%
5 Aug 20268.63%4.63%
4 Aug 20268.76%4.63%
3 Aug 20268.81%4.70%
31 Jul 20268.87%4.75%
30 Jul 20268.91%4.68%
29 Jul 20268.82%4.67%
28 Jul 20268.79%4.61%
27 Jul 20268.99%4.65%
24 Jul 20269.06%4.69%
23 Jul 20269.02%4.71%
22 Jul 20268.84%4.67%
21 Jul 20268.78%4.63%
20 Jul 20268.82%4.60%
17 Jul 20268.75%4.55%
16 Jul 20268.65%4.57%
15 Jul 20268.66%4.55%
14 Jul 20268.64%4.58%
13 Jul 20268.57%4.62%
10 Jul 20268.57%4.56%
9 Jul 20268.60%4.54%
8 Jul 20268.56%4.56%
7 Jul 20268.46%4.55%
6 Jul 20268.47%4.48%
2 Jul 20268.55%4.49%
1 Jul 20268.57%4.48%
30 Jun 20268.53%4.44%
29 Jun 20268.48%4.38%
26 Jun 20268.49%4.38%
25 Jun 20268.52%4.40%
24 Jun 20268.62%4.41%
23 Jun 20268.60%4.50%
22 Jun 20268.58%4.51%
18 Jun 20268.55%4.46%
17 Jun 20268.57%4.49%
15 Jun 20268.66%4.47%
12 Jun 20268.77%4.48%
11 Jun 20268.91%4.45%
10 Jun 20268.92%4.55%
9 Jun 20268.92%4.53%
8 Jun 20269.08%4.56%
5 Jun 20268.86%4.55%
4 Jun 20268.79%4.47%
3 Jun 20268.77%4.49%
2 Jun 20268.81%4.46%
1 Jun 20268.75%4.47%

Showing the most recent 60 of 242 observations in this window.

Table view — The spread
DateSA − US
27 Aug 2026409bps
26 Aug 2026404bps
25 Aug 2026417bps
24 Aug 2026416bps
21 Aug 2026411bps
20 Aug 2026411bps
19 Aug 2026416bps
18 Aug 2026412bps
17 Aug 2026403bps
14 Aug 2026403bps
13 Aug 2026408bps
12 Aug 2026402bps
11 Aug 2026397bps
7 Aug 2026399bps
6 Aug 2026391bps
5 Aug 2026400bps
4 Aug 2026413bps
3 Aug 2026411bps
31 Jul 2026412bps
30 Jul 2026423bps
29 Jul 2026415bps
28 Jul 2026418bps
27 Jul 2026434bps
24 Jul 2026437bps
23 Jul 2026431bps
22 Jul 2026417bps
21 Jul 2026415bps
20 Jul 2026422bps
17 Jul 2026420bps
16 Jul 2026408bps
15 Jul 2026411bps
14 Jul 2026406bps
13 Jul 2026395bps
10 Jul 2026401bps
9 Jul 2026406bps
8 Jul 2026400bps
7 Jul 2026391bps
6 Jul 2026399bps
2 Jul 2026406bps
1 Jul 2026409bps
30 Jun 2026409bps
29 Jun 2026410bps
26 Jun 2026411bps
25 Jun 2026412bps
24 Jun 2026421bps
23 Jun 2026410bps
22 Jun 2026407bps
18 Jun 2026409bps
17 Jun 2026408bps
15 Jun 2026419bps
12 Jun 2026429bps
11 Jun 2026446bps
10 Jun 2026437bps
9 Jun 2026439bps
8 Jun 2026452bps
5 Jun 2026431bps
4 Jun 2026432bps
3 Jun 2026428bps
2 Jun 2026435bps
1 Jun 2026428bps

Showing the most recent 60 of 242 observations in this window.

Bullish 409bps at the 2026-08-27 join (SA 8.76%, US 4.67%), in from 589bps a year ago — a 180bps narrowing. The narrowing is driven by the SA leg falling while the US leg drifted up — precisely the client's counterintuitive bullish case. The join sits one session behind Friday: SARB publishes T+1 business day.

Are US rates a tailwind or a headwind? X1a

Effective federal funds rate% · daily
3.6%3.8%4.0%4.2%4.4%3.6%Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26

The delta on this row is monochrome, and deliberately: a falling fed funds rate is easing, and easing is a tailwind. Colouring the change by its sign would say the opposite.

Table view — Effective federal funds rate
DateFed funds
27 Aug 20263.63%
26 Aug 20263.63%
25 Aug 20263.63%
24 Aug 20263.63%
23 Aug 20263.63%
22 Aug 20263.63%
21 Aug 20263.63%
20 Aug 20263.63%
19 Aug 20263.63%
18 Aug 20263.63%
17 Aug 20263.63%
16 Aug 20263.63%
15 Aug 20263.63%
14 Aug 20263.63%
13 Aug 20263.63%
12 Aug 20263.63%
11 Aug 20263.63%
10 Aug 20263.63%
9 Aug 20263.63%
8 Aug 20263.63%
7 Aug 20263.63%
6 Aug 20263.63%
5 Aug 20263.63%
4 Aug 20263.63%
3 Aug 20263.63%
2 Aug 20263.63%
1 Aug 20263.63%
31 Jul 20263.63%
30 Jul 20263.63%
29 Jul 20263.63%
28 Jul 20263.63%
27 Jul 20263.63%
26 Jul 20263.63%
25 Jul 20263.63%
24 Jul 20263.63%
23 Jul 20263.63%
22 Jul 20263.63%
21 Jul 20263.63%
20 Jul 20263.63%
19 Jul 20263.63%
18 Jul 20263.63%
17 Jul 20263.63%
16 Jul 20263.63%
15 Jul 20263.63%
14 Jul 20263.63%
13 Jul 20263.62%
12 Jul 20263.62%
11 Jul 20263.62%
10 Jul 20263.62%
9 Jul 20263.62%
8 Jul 20263.62%
7 Jul 20263.63%
6 Jul 20263.63%
5 Jul 20263.63%
4 Jul 20263.63%
3 Jul 20263.63%
2 Jul 20263.63%
1 Jul 20263.63%
30 Jun 20263.63%
29 Jun 20263.63%

Showing the most recent 60 of 366 observations in this window.

Neutral 3.63% on 2026-08-27, unchanged on the day and down from 4.33% a year ago. An easing Fed is a tailwind for the spread thesis; no meeting imminent.

What are US equities doing? X1b

S&P 500index points · daily
6500700075007712Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26

Ten years of history and no more — the licence it is redistributed under does not reach further back, which is why the horizon control labels its longest button with the year the data actually begins.

Table view — S&P 500
DateS&P 500
28 Aug 20267,712
27 Aug 20267,731
26 Aug 20267,676
25 Aug 20267,677
24 Aug 20267,653
21 Aug 20267,674
20 Aug 20267,641
19 Aug 20267,708
18 Aug 20267,692
17 Aug 20267,745
14 Aug 20267,786
13 Aug 20267,799
12 Aug 20267,749
11 Aug 20267,728
10 Aug 20267,753
7 Aug 20267,758
6 Aug 20267,710
5 Aug 20267,724
4 Aug 20267,737
3 Aug 20267,601
31 Jul 20267,490
30 Jul 20267,438
29 Jul 20267,316
28 Jul 20267,429
27 Jul 20267,413
24 Jul 20267,412
23 Jul 20267,408
22 Jul 20267,499
21 Jul 20267,509
20 Jul 20267,443
17 Jul 20267,458
16 Jul 20267,534
15 Jul 20267,572
14 Jul 20267,544
13 Jul 20267,515
10 Jul 20267,575
9 Jul 20267,544
8 Jul 20267,483
7 Jul 20267,504
6 Jul 20267,537
2 Jul 20267,483
1 Jul 20267,483
30 Jun 20267,499
29 Jun 20267,440
26 Jun 20267,354
25 Jun 20267,357
24 Jun 20267,358
23 Jun 20267,365
22 Jun 20267,473
18 Jun 20267,501
17 Jun 20267,420
16 Jun 20267,511
15 Jun 20267,554
12 Jun 20267,431
11 Jun 20267,394
10 Jun 20267,267
9 Jun 20267,387
8 Jun 20267,406
5 Jun 20267,384
4 Jun 20267,584

Showing the most recent 60 of 252 observations in this window.

Bullish 7,711.76 at Friday's close (2026-08-28), +18.6% over twelve months. Risk appetite intact — the backdrop against which SA assets are being repriced tighter.

Where these numbers come from

SeriesSourceCadenceLatest
US Federal Funds RateFRED keyless CSV (DFF)daily · quantitative2026-08-27 · current
S&P 500FRED keyless CSV (SP500)daily · quantitative2026-08-28 · current
US 10-Year Treasury YieldFRED keyless CSV (DGS10)daily · quantitative2026-08-27 · current
SA–US 10-Year Yield SpreadComputed at build time (src/utils/)daily · derived2026-08-27 · current