SOUNDINGS

A daily reading of the South African investment case

The read, 30 Aug 2026

Fixed Investment (GFCF) as % of GDP D2
13.20%
Bearish
SA–US 10-Year Yield Spread X1c
409bps
Bullish

Economy D5, D7

Unemployment — youth especially — and growth.

Horizon

Unemployment — youth especially D5

Unemployment rate% · quarterly
AllYouth (15–34)
30.0%40.0%50.0%33.3%46.2%2021Q12022Q12023Q12024Q12025Q1

Two series, one unit, one axis. The youth measure uses South Africa’s own 15–34 definition, validated against the Stats SA print to within 0.1pp; the ILO’s 15–24 measure reads considerably higher and is a different question. Note the delta is monochrome here for a reason — a falling unemployment rate is the best thing that could happen, and a red arrow would say the opposite.

Table view — Unemployment rate
DateAllYouth (15–34)
30 Jun 202533.31%46.23%
31 Mar 202532.93%46.11%
31 Dec 202431.88%44.63%
30 Sept 202432.10%45.48%
30 Jun 202433.49%46.64%
31 Mar 202432.96%45.54%
31 Dec 202332.08%44.29%
30 Sept 202331.93%43.43%
30 Jun 202332.65%45.34%
31 Mar 202332.89%46.48%
31 Dec 202232.73%45.33%
30 Sept 202232.89%45.48%
30 Jun 202233.94%46.55%
31 Mar 202234.52%47.81%
31 Dec 202135.26%49.05%
30 Sept 202134.87%49.30%
30 Jun 202134.38%48.10%
31 Mar 202132.58%46.30%
31 Dec 202032.50%46.11%
30 Sept 202030.79%43.20%
30 Jun 202023.31%34.11%

Neutral 33.31% at 2025Q2, the latest the ILOSTAT mirror carries — 426 days old. Described, not signalled beyond neutral: the print is over a year old and the mirror's lag is the constraint, not the labour market's silence.

Growth D7

GDP growth% y/y · quarterly
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%2.0%2021Q12022Q12023Q12024Q12025Q12026Q1

Columns on a visible zero rule: a growth rate crosses zero, and the sign is the thing being read. IMF-harmonised, which reads slightly off the Stats SA print for definitional reasons — Stats SA’s own release is bot-walled.

Table view — GDP growth
DateGDP growth
31 Mar 20262.03%
31 Dec 20251.53%
30 Sept 20251.56%
30 Jun 20250.96%
31 Mar 20250.41%
31 Dec 20240.45%
30 Sept 20240.44%
30 Jun 20240.35%
31 Mar 20240.90%
31 Dec 20231.51%
30 Sept 2023-0.33%
30 Jun 20231.90%
31 Mar 20230.16%
31 Dec 20220.99%
30 Sept 20224.10%
30 Jun 20220.43%
31 Mar 20222.76%
31 Dec 20211.79%
30 Sept 20212.94%
30 Jun 202119.18%
31 Mar 2021-2.25%

Bullish 2.03% year-on-year at 2026Q1, up from 1.53% the prior quarter. Growth accelerating while fixed investment falls — the most interesting tension on the board, and the dashboard's job is to show it, not resolve it.

Where these numbers come from

SeriesSourceCadenceLatest
Unemployment RateILOSTAT SDMX (Stats SA QLFS microdata)quarterly · quantitative2025-06-30 · stale
Youth Unemployment Rate (15–34)ILOSTAT SDMX (Stats SA QLFS) — 15-34 rate computed from countsquarterly · quantitative2025-06-30 · stale
GDP GrowthFRED keyless CSV (IMF IFS: Real GDP for South Africa, sa)quarterly · quantitative2026-03-31 · current