Institutions D8
Are prosecutions landing? Is state capture expanding or receding?
Are prosecutions landing? D8a
The axis is the scale, not the data: the domain stays 0–100 whatever the observations do, and the anchors are the registry’s own wording. A score with no scale printed beside it is a number someone made up.
Table view — Successful prosecutions
| Date | Successful prosecutions |
|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | 50 |
| 28 Sept 2026 | 50 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | 55 |
▼Bearish Score 50 as at 28 October 2026, unchanged from 28 September. No senior conviction in the window. Former Speaker Mapisa-Nqakula failed to appear when her trial resumed on 2 October; an arrest warrant is held over to 11 November. The former Transnet executives are asking the High Court to strike their case from the roll for delay, and it has not ruled. The Presidency put recoveries since the Zondo Commission at R17.2bn, R8.2bn through the prosecuting authority. Scored monthly; the next score is due around 28 November. Bearish on the question you put: are prosecutions landing? For a second month none landed, and the two senior trials still running went backwards: one accused did not come to court, and the other case may be struck off. The score holds at your scale's midpoint because the charges are still before the courts and nothing was withdrawn this month. What would move it down is the Transnet case being struck off; what would move it up is a senior conviction, and none is close.
Is state capture expanding or receding? D8b
One observation so far — the shape arrives with the cycles. The score is read against the scale on the right, and the memo below carries the evidence and its sources.
The scale wording here is still to be refined with you — it is your judgment being encoded, not ours.
Table view — State capture
| Date | State capture |
|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2026 | 45 |
–Neutral Score 45 as at 28 August 2026, 62 days old. Quarterly cadence: not due until late November. An unchanged situation observed at the series' own cadence is the honest reading, and nothing this run touched it.
The evidence, in full
Every observation on this page is scored by the update cycle from searched and crawled sources, and every one carries its citations. Nothing below is summarised from memory.
State-Capture & Corruption Prosecutions — 50/100 28 Oct 2026
Unchanged at the scale's midpoint. No senior figure was convicted in the window, and the two senior trials that matter most moved backwards rather than forwards. Former Speaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula failed to appear when her corruption trial resumed on 2 October; the Pretoria High Court authorised a warrant for her arrest, held over until the trial resumes on 11 November. In the Transnet locomotives case, one of the few state-capture prosecutions run by the anti-corruption directorate (IDAC), former executives Brian Molefe, Anoj Singh and Siyabonga Gama are asking the Johannesburg High Court to strike the matter from the roll for unreasonable delay; the case was enrolled in 2022, the trial was due to start on 2 February and did not, and the court has not ruled. The withdrawal of charges against National Police Commissioner Fannie Masemola has run its course: he returned to work on 19 October, and the question of how IDAC came to charge him sits with its oversight judge and the Madlanga Commission. On recovery, the Presidency told Parliament on 9 October that R17.2bn has been returned to the state since the Zondo Commission, R8.2bn of it through the prosecuting authority. Charges against senior figures are still before the courts, which is what 50 means on your scale; nothing in October added a conviction, and the risk to the score is a case being struck off, not a case landing.
State-Capture & Corruption Prosecutions — 50/100 28 Sept 2026
Down five points, to the scale's midpoint. Two of the month's most senior corruption cases were withdrawn by the prosecuting authority itself: on 8 September the case against Crime Intelligence head Lt-Gen Dumisani Khumalo and six senior officers, after the National Director intervened citing serious irregularities in how the anti-corruption directorate (IDAC) handled it; and on 22 September the four Public Finance Management Act counts against National Police Commissioner Fannie Masemola, after a review found no reasonable prospect of a successful prosecution. Three suspended IDAC officials face disciplinary processes, and the Masemola matter goes to the IDAC judge to establish whether the charges were instituted improperly. Against that, the one senior trial in court held: on 7 September the Pretoria High Court refused former Speaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula a discharge, finding a prima facie case on 12 corruption counts and one of money laundering, and the trial has moved to the defence. The IDAC reset has an acting head, Adv Ntuthuzelo Vanara, and the Justice Minister put cumulative Zondo-linked asset recovery at R8.3bn. The search found no new senior conviction in the window. Charges against senior figures are still before the courts, which is what 50 means on your scale; the conviction and forfeiture that carried August's 55 are now earlier in the year, and the month's news was cases falling away rather than landing.
State-Capture & Corruption Prosecutions — 55/100 28 Aug 2026
Charges against senior figures are landing and some are converting: the NPA told SCOPA (18 Aug 2026) that 99 individuals are on trial in 15 state-capture cases with 11 finalised and 56 still under investigation, while conceding the pace is slow and forensic expertise has been lost. In this window the NPA secured a senior conviction (former MP Vincent Smith, 7 years for Bosasa corruption, Mar 2026) and a R326m forfeiture in the Tembisa Hospital/Maumela case (Jul 2026). Against that, IDAC — the flagship anti-corruption directorate — is in crisis: its head Andrea Johnson resigned and its chief investigator was suspended after Madlanga Commission evidence of mandate overreach, forcing a six-month institutional reset. Above the 'charges filed against senior figures' midpoint on convictions plus asset recovery, but far from sustained senior convictions.
State Capture: Expansion or Reduction — 45/100 28 Aug 2026
Rollback of Zondo-era capture is real but grinding: Cabinet reports 57% of the Zondo action plan addressed and over R16bn in assets recovered (Feb 2026), draft Public Procurement Act regulations were published in April 2026 (the Act itself is still not in force), and an SOE governance reform programme including the National State Enterprise Bill is moving (Jul 2026). But the Madlanga Commission's interim report — accepted by the President in Jan 2026 — found prima facie evidence of a criminal syndicate infiltrating SAPS, metro police and the wider criminal justice system, with referrals against serving generals, and IDAC itself was compromised from within, forcing suspensions and a reset. Old capture receding slowly while capture-type dynamics surface in new institutions: net slightly below static.
Where these numbers come from
| Series | Source | Cadence | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|
| State-Capture & Corruption Prosecutions | Research cycle (search + crawl) | monthly · qualitative | 2026-10-28 · current |
| State Capture: Expansion or Reduction | Research cycle (search + crawl) | quarterly · qualitative | 2026-08-28 · current |