Institutions D8
Are prosecutions landing? Is state capture expanding or receding?
Are prosecutions landing? D8a
One observation so far — the shape arrives with the cycles. The score is read against the scale on the right, and the memo below carries the evidence and its sources.
The axis is the scale, not the data: the domain stays 0–100 whatever the observations do, and the anchors are the registry’s own wording. A score with no scale printed beside it is a number someone made up.
Table view — Successful prosecutions
| Date | Successful prosecutions |
|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2026 | 55 |
–Neutral Score 55 of 100, set 2026-08-28. Monthly cadence — not due this cycle, so carried unchanged. Charges filed against senior figures with early convictions landing; next research pass due late September.
Is state capture expanding or receding? D8b
One observation so far — the shape arrives with the cycles. The score is read against the scale on the right, and the memo below carries the evidence and its sources.
The scale wording here is still to be refined with him — it is his judgment being encoded, not ours.
Table view — State capture
| Date | State capture |
|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2026 | 45 |
–Neutral Score 45 of 100, set 2026-08-28. Quarterly cadence — not due this cycle, so carried unchanged. Marginally below static: rollback in prosecution, persistence in procurement. Next research pass due in Q4.
The evidence, in full
Every observation on this page is scored by the update cycle from searched and crawled sources, and every one carries its citations. Nothing below is summarised from memory.
State-Capture & Corruption Prosecutions — 55/100 28 Aug 2026
Charges against senior figures are landing and some are converting: the NPA told SCOPA (18 Aug 2026) that 99 individuals are on trial in 15 state-capture cases with 11 finalised and 56 still under investigation, while conceding the pace is slow and forensic expertise has been lost. In this window the NPA secured a senior conviction (former MP Vincent Smith, 7 years for Bosasa corruption, Mar 2026) and a R326m forfeiture in the Tembisa Hospital/Maumela case (Jul 2026). Against that, IDAC — the flagship anti-corruption directorate — is in crisis: its head Andrea Johnson resigned and its chief investigator was suspended after Madlanga Commission evidence of mandate overreach, forcing a six-month institutional reset. Above the 'charges filed against senior figures' midpoint on convictions plus asset recovery, but far from sustained senior convictions.
State Capture: Expansion or Reduction — 45/100 28 Aug 2026
Rollback of Zondo-era capture is real but grinding: Cabinet reports 57% of the Zondo action plan addressed and over R16bn in assets recovered (Feb 2026), draft Public Procurement Act regulations were published in April 2026 (the Act itself is still not in force), and an SOE governance reform programme including the National State Enterprise Bill is moving (Jul 2026). But the Madlanga Commission's interim report — accepted by the President in Jan 2026 — found prima facie evidence of a criminal syndicate infiltrating SAPS, metro police and the wider criminal justice system, with referrals against serving generals, and IDAC itself was compromised from within, forcing suspensions and a reset. Old capture receding slowly while capture-type dynamics surface in new institutions: net slightly below static.
Where these numbers come from
| Series | Source | Cadence | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|
| State-Capture & Corruption Prosecutions | Research cycle (search + crawl) | monthly · qualitative | 2026-08-28 · current |
| State Capture: Expansion or Reduction | Research cycle (search + crawl) | quarterly · qualitative | 2026-08-28 · current |