China & India X2–X3
Are China and India growing, and are they buying more South African minerals?
Are they growing or slowing? X2a · X3a
Two series, one unit, one axis — and a visible zero rule, because a growth rate that crosses zero is a different kind of news.
Table view — GDP growth, year on year
| Date | China | India |
|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 2026 | 5.0% | 7.96% |
| 31 Dec 2025 | 4.50% | 7.83% |
| 30 Sept 2025 | 4.80% | 8.07% |
| 30 Jun 2025 | 5.20% | 7.11% |
| 31 Mar 2025 | 5.40% | 7.12% |
| 31 Dec 2024 | 5.40% | 6.73% |
| 30 Sept 2024 | 4.60% | 6.79% |
| 30 Jun 2024 | 4.70% | 7.78% |
| 31 Mar 2024 | 5.30% | 7.50% |
| 31 Dec 2023 | 5.30% | 5.63% |
| 30 Sept 2023 | 5.0% | 8.38% |
| 30 Jun 2023 | 6.50% | 7.39% |
| 31 Mar 2023 | 4.70% | 7.53% |
| 31 Dec 2022 | 3.0% | 9.17% |
| 30 Sept 2022 | 4.0% | 5.16% |
| 30 Jun 2022 | 0.80% | 16.47% |
| 31 Mar 2022 | 4.80% | 4.08% |
| 31 Dec 2021 | 4.50% | 4.28% |
| 30 Sept 2021 | 5.50% | 10.92% |
| 30 Jun 2021 | 8.10% | 22.96% |
| 31 Mar 2021 | 18.90% | 2.78% |
–Neutral 5.0% year-on-year in Q1 2026, unchanged and 212 days old. Up from 4.5% in Q4 2025, down from 5.4% a year earlier. Recovered from the Q4 low and slower than a year ago; neither direction is established. The demand side of your commodity exposure is neither helping nor hurting.
Are they buying more South African minerals? X2b · X3b
These are total bilateral goods exports, about four months in arrears — not minerals-only series. Minerals dominate the China total (82% of the December 2025 figure) but are a narrower majority of India’s (58%, coal-led), so the India line is the looser proxy of the two. Both are labelled as what they are rather than as what was asked for.
Table view — SA goods exports
| Date | To China | To India |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | $1.42bn | $0.34bn |
| 31 May 2026 | $1.19bn | $0.48bn |
| 30 Apr 2026 | $1.28bn | $0.50bn |
| 31 Mar 2026 | $1.24bn | $0.53bn |
| 28 Feb 2026 | $1.14bn | $0.46bn |
| 31 Jan 2026 | $1.30bn | $0.35bn |
| 31 Dec 2025 | $1.16bn | $0.40bn |
| 30 Nov 2025 | $1.09bn | $0.41bn |
| 31 Oct 2025 | $1.14bn | $0.42bn |
| 30 Sept 2025 | $1.21bn | $0.38bn |
| 31 Aug 2025 | $1.14bn | $0.32bn |
| 31 Jul 2025 | $1.05bn | $0.30bn |
| 30 Jun 2025 | $1.08bn | $0.26bn |
| 31 May 2025 | $0.98bn | $0.42bn |
| 30 Apr 2025 | $0.91bn | $0.46bn |
| 31 Mar 2025 | $0.90bn | $0.42bn |
| 28 Feb 2025 | $0.87bn | $0.29bn |
| 31 Jan 2025 | $0.91bn | $0.40bn |
| 31 Dec 2024 | $1.01bn | $0.47bn |
| 30 Nov 2024 | $1.01bn | $0.39bn |
| 31 Oct 2024 | $0.84bn | $0.42bn |
| 30 Sept 2024 | $1.06bn | $0.34bn |
| 31 Aug 2024 | $1.09bn | $0.35bn |
| 31 Jul 2024 | $1.07bn | $0.40bn |
| 30 Jun 2024 | $1.08bn | $0.42bn |
| 31 May 2024 | $1.10bn | $0.42bn |
| 30 Apr 2024 | $0.95bn | $0.43bn |
| 31 Mar 2024 | $0.95bn | $0.37bn |
| 29 Feb 2024 | $1.00bn | $0.30bn |
| 31 Jan 2024 | $0.89bn | $0.33bn |
| 31 Dec 2023 | $1.12bn | $0.51bn |
| 30 Nov 2023 | $1.07bn | $0.42bn |
| 31 Oct 2023 | $0.82bn | $0.50bn |
| 30 Sept 2023 | $1.04bn | $0.43bn |
| 31 Aug 2023 | $1.13bn | $0.35bn |
| 31 Jul 2023 | $0.85bn | $0.29bn |
| 30 Jun 2023 | $1.07bn | $0.28bn |
| 31 May 2023 | $1.14bn | $0.44bn |
| 30 Apr 2023 | $1.04bn | $0.54bn |
| 31 Mar 2023 | $1.10bn | $0.49bn |
| 28 Feb 2023 | $0.92bn | $0.37bn |
| 31 Jan 2023 | $1.09bn | $0.32bn |
| 31 Dec 2022 | $0.91bn | $0.25bn |
| 30 Nov 2022 | $1.01bn | $0.41bn |
| 31 Oct 2022 | $0.64bn | $0.32bn |
| 30 Sept 2022 | $0.96bn | $0.67bn |
| 31 Aug 2022 | $1.16bn | $0.33bn |
| 31 Jul 2022 | $1.26bn | $0.35bn |
| 30 Jun 2022 | $1.04bn | $0.42bn |
| 31 May 2022 | $1.04bn | $0.69bn |
| 30 Apr 2022 | $0.82bn | $0.41bn |
| 31 Mar 2022 | $1.10bn | $0.55bn |
| 28 Feb 2022 | $0.79bn | $0.55bn |
| 31 Jan 2022 | $0.86bn | $0.41bn |
| 31 Dec 2021 | $0.87bn | $0.48bn |
| 30 Nov 2021 | $1.07bn | $0.41bn |
| 31 Oct 2021 | $0.80bn | $0.36bn |
| 30 Sept 2021 | $1.06bn | $0.36bn |
| 31 Aug 2021 | $1.24bn | $0.26bn |
| 31 Jul 2021 | $1.25bn | $0.32bn |
Showing the most recent 60 of 61 observations in this window.
▲Bullish $1.424bn in June 2026, the highest month on your record (since 2016). +19.76% on May's $1.189bn and +32.22% on June 2025's $1.077bn. The print is 121 days old. Bullish holds. The year-on-year gain is about a third. The figure describes June, not now, but June was the best month the China leg has had.
Where these numbers come from
| Series | Source | Cadence | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|
| China GDP Growth | DBnomics (OECD Quarterly GDP growth, G20) | quarterly · quantitative | 2026-03-31 · lagging |
| India GDP Growth | DBnomics (OECD Quarterly GDP growth, G20) | quarterly · quantitative | 2026-03-31 · lagging |
| SA Mineral/Commodity Exports to China | IMF IMTS (DOTS successor), SDMX 2.1 API, keyless | monthly · quantitative | 2026-06-30 · lagging |
| SA Mineral/Commodity Exports to India | IMF IMTS (DOTS successor), SDMX 2.1 API, keyless | monthly · quantitative | 2026-06-30 · lagging |