SOUNDINGS

A daily reading of the South African investment case

The read, 30 Aug 2026

Fixed Investment (GFCF) as % of GDP D2
13.20%
Bearish
SA–US 10-Year Yield Spread X1c
409bps
Bullish

Fixed investment D2

Is GFCF as a share of GDP rising or falling, how is it split between private and public, and is the trend accelerating or decelerating?

Horizon

Is fixed investment rising or falling? D2

Gross fixed capital formation% of GDP · quarterly
Private businessPublic corporationsGeneral government
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%2021Q12022Q12023Q12024Q12025Q12026Q1

Rising = bullish, falling = bearish — the client’s own rule, cited rather than editorialised. The split is the one he asked for: private, public corporations, general government.

Table view — Gross fixed capital formation
DateGross fixed capital formation
31 Mar 202613.20%
31 Dec 202513.53%
30 Sept 202513.75%
30 Jun 202514.02%
31 Mar 202514.25%
31 Dec 202414.19%
30 Sept 202414.57%
30 Jun 202414.71%
31 Mar 202414.63%
31 Dec 202314.80%
30 Sept 202314.96%
30 Jun 202315.32%
31 Mar 202314.66%
31 Dec 202214.62%
30 Sept 202214.27%
30 Jun 202214.01%
31 Mar 202213.81%
31 Dec 202113.37%
30 Sept 202113.14%
30 Jun 202112.85%
31 Mar 202113.07%

Bearish 2026Q1 stands at 13.2% of GDP, down 0.33pp from 13.53% — a fourth consecutive quarterly decline, and the lowest reading since 2021Q1. Quarterly; no new print possible before the September Quarterly Bulletin. The client's own rule: falling = bearish. Unchanged since the 2026-08-29 capture.

Is the trend accelerating or decelerating? D2

Quarter-on-quarter changepercentage points
-0.5+0.52021Q12022Q12023Q12024Q12025Q12026Q1

This is the one chart in the system whose colour says good or bad, because the brief defines the sign as the signal in so many words. Two triggers, both named: steepening — the decline is getting worse — and persistence — a full year of decline, at any rate. Today steepening is not firing and persistence is firing. A move smaller than 0.05pp is inside the rounding of a revision and cannot start a run.

Table view — Quarter-on-quarter change
DateQuarter-on-quarter change
31 Mar 2026-0.33%
31 Dec 2025-0.22%
30 Sept 2025-0.27%
30 Jun 2025-0.23%
31 Mar 20250.06%
31 Dec 2024-0.38%
30 Sept 2024-0.14%
30 Jun 20240.08%
31 Mar 2024-0.17%
31 Dec 2023-0.16%
30 Sept 2023-0.36%
30 Jun 20230.66%
31 Mar 20230.04%
31 Dec 20220.35%
30 Sept 20220.26%
30 Jun 20220.20%
31 Mar 20220.44%
31 Dec 20210.23%
30 Sept 20210.29%
30 Jun 2021-0.22%
31 Mar 2021-0.52%

Warning The persistence trigger remains fired: four consecutive quarterly declines (−0.23, −0.27, −0.22, −0.33pp), all beyond the 0.05pp noise floor. Steepening is not firing. DESIGN §5's persistence rule — a full year of decline at any rate. It stays fired until a quarterly print breaks the run.

The running total, and the years compared D2

The brief asks for fixed investment "as a percentage of GDP, and if possible as a running total". A running total of a ratio is not a quantity — four percentages of GDP cannot be added together and mean anything — so this shows the four-quarter rolling average of the ratio, a reading he confirmed on 30 August, and beside it the annual comparison he asked for at the same time: each complete calendar year’s average, so one year stands against another directly.

Four-quarter rolling average% of GDP · derived
13.0%13.5%14.0%14.5%15.0%13.6%2022Q12023Q12024Q12025Q12026Q1
Year against year% of GDP · annual average
13.0%13.5%14.0%14.5%15.0%13.9%20212022202320242025
Table view — Four-quarter rolling average
DateRolling 4q average
31 Mar 202613.63%
31 Dec 202513.89%
30 Sept 202514.05%
30 Jun 202514.26%
31 Mar 202514.43%
31 Dec 202414.53%
30 Sept 202414.68%
30 Jun 202414.78%
31 Mar 202414.93%
31 Dec 202314.94%
30 Sept 202314.89%
30 Jun 202314.72%
31 Mar 202314.39%
31 Dec 202214.18%
30 Sept 202213.87%
30 Jun 202213.58%
31 Mar 202213.29%
31 Dec 202113.11%
30 Sept 202113.16%
30 Jun 202113.28%
31 Mar 202113.46%
Table view — Year against year
DateCalendar-year average
31 Dec 202513.89%
31 Dec 202414.53%
31 Dec 202314.93%
31 Dec 202214.18%
31 Dec 202113.11%
31 Dec 202013.79%

Not called in this cycle — the chart and the rail carry the numbers; only the judgment is absent.

Where these numbers come from

SeriesSourceCadenceLatest
Fixed Investment (GFCF) as % of GDPSARB Quarterly Bulletin xlsx (KBP6 National Accounts)quarterly · quantitative2026-03-31 · current
Investment Acceleration (early warning)Computed at build time (src/utils/)quarterly · derived2026-03-31 · current