SOUNDINGS

A daily reading of the South African investment case

The read, 29 Oct 2026

Fixed Investment (GFCF) as % of GDP D2
13.70%
Bullish
SA–US 10-Year Yield Spread X1c
374bps
Neutral

The read, 29 Oct 2026

Your manganese proxy is the one call that changed: Jupiter Mines' realised price fell 10% in the September quarter, to $4.44, on weak Chinese demand, and the row goes from bullish to neutral with the year still up 15%. Your spread narrowed 8bps to 374bps on Wednesday in the shape your rule rewards, South Africa's yield down while America's rose, and over the month the narrowing is now led by your yield; we hold it neutral because one day and ten basis points are not yet a trend. Eskom's first figure for the week beginning 26 October is back above 70%, but the completed weeks are still under the line. The ILO mirror refused the unemployment-rate request for the first time. Gold and platinum are unjudged for a twenty-ninth cycle.

Equities & bonds D1

JSE All Share Index D1a

110,038.7 on Thursday 29 October, +0.25% on the day from Wednesday's 109,759. Against the Thursday before it reads +1.39% from 108,525.5, one month +0.55% from 109,440.7 on 29 September and twelve months -0.30% from 110,371.3; 14.34% below the 27 February record of 128,455.7.

Neutral holds. The test for turning bearish is a lower week with the month's loss past five per cent, and neither is close: the week is up more than one per cent and the month is a small gain. The year is flat and the index is still more than fourteen per cent under February's record. It is going sideways, not recovering.

110,039
-0.3%
Neutral current · 29 Oct 2026 Yahoo Finance chart API daily · quantitative

JSE Precious Metals & Mining Index D1b

116,695.74 on Thursday 29 October, -0.03% on the day from Wednesday's 116,735.61. Friday 23 October's 114,235.02 is still the lowest close on your record for this index; our source still returns no close for Thursday 22 October, so the week compares with Wednesday 21 October: -3.94% from 121,478.49. One month is -6.79% from 125,194.89 on 29 September, and the index is 22.99% below its 28 August first print of 151,536.05.

Bearish holds, and the exit test that was half met last night now fails on both counts. We use the same two conditions that lift your All Share out of a bearish call: a higher week and a month's loss inside five per cent. The month comparison moved on to 29 September, a strong close, so the month is almost seven per cent down again. The week is down almost four. On Friday the week will be measured against 23 October's low, so that half may pass by the calendar alone; the month would need a close above about 118,935. We could not read gold or platinum for a twenty-ninth cycle (see those rows), so the miners remain your only current read on the metals.

116,696
-23.0%
Bearish current · 29 Oct 2026 Yahoo Finance chart API daily · quantitative

JSE Financials Index D1b

63,810.01 on Thursday 29 October, +0.78% on the day from Wednesday's 63,316.08. Against the Thursday before it reads +2.81% from 62,068.22, one month +3.61% from 61,588.08 on 29 September and twelve months +12.10% from 56,923.28; 5.28% below the 26 February record of 67,363.51.

Neutral holds, though the case for bullish keeps building. For a fourth session the week, the month and the year are all higher, and all three grew on Thursday; the index is up twelve per cent on the year, where your All Share is flat. We have not set a written test for bullish on this row, and we will not change the call without one; setting it is on our list. The index is still five per cent under its February record.

63,810
+12.1%
Neutral current · 29 Oct 2026 Yahoo Finance chart API daily · quantitative

SA 10-Year Government Bond Yield D1a

8.79% on Wednesday 28 October, -2bps on the day from Tuesday's 8.81%. The week reads -10bps from 8.89% on 21 October, one month -29bps from 9.08% on 28 September, and twelve months -58bps from 9.37%.

Neutral holds. The yield is lower on the day, the week and the month and well below the 9.18% line we set for judging it again. Your spread rule wants it falling while America holds steady, and on Wednesday it did better than that: it fell two basis points while America's rose six. Over the month it has fallen 29 basis points against America's 19, so the spread is narrower on the month for the first time in this run of readings (see the spread row).

8.79%
-0.58pp
Neutral current · 28 Oct 2026 SARB Web API daily · quantitative

Fixed investment D2

Fixed Investment (GFCF) as % of GDP D2

13.7% of GDP in Q2 2026, unchanged since the September Quarterly Bulletin of 29 September: +0.50 points on Q1's 13.2% and the first rise after four consecutive falls (14.25, 14.02, 13.75, 13.53, 13.2). All three legs rose: private business 9.13 → 9.49, public corporations 1.61 → 1.63, general government 2.45 → 2.58. A year earlier the ratio stood at 14.02%.

Bullish on the rule you gave us: fixed investment as a share of GDP rising is bullish, and it rose. Most of the rise came from private business, which is what your thesis most needs to see. One quarter does not reverse a year: the ratio is still below Q2 2025, so this is a turn to watch, and the December Bulletin will show whether it holds.

13.70%
-0.32pp
Bullish current · 30 Jun 2026 SARB Quarterly Bulletin xlsx quarterly · quantitative

Fixed investment in rand D2

R263.13bn invested in Q2 2026, +2.52% on Q2 2025's R256.67bn; in constant 2015 prices R157.58bn, +1.52% on a year earlier. Q1 was restated from R261.26bn to R261.76bn. The first half of 2026 totals R524.89bn against R517.91bn in the first half of 2025, +1.35% (real +0.75%).

Neutral. Measured the way you asked, against the same point of the previous year, the rand invested is growing again in real terms, which it had stopped doing in Q1. The nominal pace is still below inflation of 4.4%, and the real gain is small, so this is a halt to the contraction and not yet a boom.

R263bn
+2.5%
Neutral current · 30 Jun 2026 SARB Quarterly Bulletin xlsx quarterly · quantitative

Investment Acceleration (early warning) D2

+0.50 at Q2 2026, quoted from scripts/derived.mjs: the last four quarterly deltas are -0.27, -0.22, -0.33 and +0.50. Persistence false, steepening false, signal none.

The early warning you asked for has cleared. It fired on persistence, four negative quarters in a row, and the September Bulletin broke the run with the only positive delta in the last five quarters. It is neutral and not bullish because one positive quarter is a turn, not a trend. If the December Bulletin shows a second positive delta, the acceleration will be real.

+0.50
++0.73
Neutral current · 30 Jun 2026 Computed at build time quarterly · derived

State capacity D3

Eskom Fleet Availability (EAF) D3a

70.19% is Eskom's first figure for the week beginning 26 October, which runs to Sunday 1 November and is not complete. The same file restated the three October weeks before it by a few hundredths: 5 October 69.45 → 69.53%, 12 October 68.83 → 68.91%, and 19 October 65.45 → 65.43%, so the completed sequence now runs 69.60 → 71.47 → 68.92 → 70.78 → 69.53 → 68.91 → 65.43. The 19 October week is 17.20% below the 20 July record of 79.02% and the weakest completed week since the one beginning 8 June, at 64.61%.

Bearish holds. The 69% line we set you applies to a completed week, and the two most recent completed weeks are both under it: the 12 October week by nine hundredths of a point after its restatement, and the 19 October week by more than three and a half points. The new week has started above the line, and that is worth watching: the 19 October week's first figure was 60.91% and rose as the week filled in, so first figures have tended to be low, not high. If the 26 October week completes above 69% it will be the first to do so since the week beginning 28 September, and we will re-judge the call then, not before.

70.19%
-0.01pp
Bearish current · 26 Oct 2026 Eskom Data Portal weekly · quantitative

Eskom Generation (sent out) D3a

19,653.6
-3.3%
awaiting reading current · 27 Oct 2026 Eskom Data Portal daily · quantitative

Private Generation (contracted, sent out) D3a

2,218.5
+101.7%
awaiting reading current · 27 Oct 2026 Eskom Data Portal daily · quantitative

Total Generation (sent out) D3a

21,872.1
+2.1%
awaiting reading current · 27 Oct 2026 derived daily · derived

Rooftop Solar (behind the meter, installed) D3a

6,800
+21.4%
awaiting reading current · 30 Jun 2025 CSIR utility-scale power generation statistics + NTCSA/Eskom System Operator estimates annual · quantitative

Transnet Rail Freight Volumes D3b

81.4 mt in the half-year to 30 September 2025, +4.36% on the comparable half of 78.0 mt, and 394 days old. The results index was read again and holds no FY2026 results.

The last half-year you hold grew, so bullish stands on the data, as a statement about a period that ended almost a year ago. On the last five years' pattern the annual results are due about now, and when they arrive the rail leg of your state-capacity composite moves for the first time since March.

81.4mt
+7.7%
Bullish lagging · 30 Sept 2025 Transnet annual & interim results PDFs semiannual · quantitative

Port Volumes D3b

460,203 TEUs in September, published on 14 October: +20.23% on August's 382,765 and -4.96% on September 2025's 484,225, the record. It is the second-highest month in the 27 months we hold. Tonnage was 19.98 million against 21.22 million a year earlier, and vessel calls rose to 890 from 772 in August.

Neutral, from bearish. The bearish call rested on two months falling against both the month before and the year before. September rose sharply on the month, so that test is no longer met. But do not read September's jump as a recovery. September is the port's peak month: it was also the busiest month we hold for both 2024 and 2025. Against the same month a year earlier, the measure that strips the season out, containers are down for a third month running (-5.81% in July, -6.73% in August, -4.96% in September), only slightly less steeply. A rising month and a falling year are a mixed reading.

460k TEU
-5.0%
Neutral current · 30 Sept 2026 TNPA Port Statistics monthly · quantitative

Port Turnaround Times D3b

No observations captured yet.

State Capacity Index D3

64.9 at 2026-09-30, quoted from scripts/derived.mjs and unchanged: provisional. Legs at the weights you set of 0.50 / 0.25 / 0.25: electricity 69.7/100 (September's weekly mean 70.19% against August's 69.95%), ports 87.6/100 (460,203 TEUs in September), rail 32.4/100 (81.4 mt, unchanged since the 2025 interim results). Tonight's Eskom restatements touched only October weeks, so September's leg did not move.

Neutral holds, unchanged since the 14 October move from bearish. Direction is your rule for this composite, and September is up by more than ten points on August. But nearly all of the rise comes from ports, and most of that is the September peak in container traffic; containers are still five per cent down on a year ago. Electricity, which you told us must dominate, barely moved in September. October's three completed weeks average 67.96%, more than two points below September's 70.19%; the first figure for the fourth week is 70.19%, the same number as September's mean, but that week is not complete. October's leg will not enter the composite until October's ports figure arrives, in mid-November. A seasonal rise in ports with a flat grid is not the improvement your question asks about, so we call it neutral, not bullish.

64.9
-3.10pp
Neutral lagging · 30 Sept 2025 Computed at build time monthly · derived

Fiscal D4

Primary Budget Balance D4b

-0.72% of GDP for calendar 2024, against -0.53% in 2023. An annual series; the last print is 667 days old and nothing new is possible before the next fiscal publication. The source was read again this run and returned the same figures.

Nothing moved and nothing could. Read it beside your debt ratio, and do not mistake its silence for calm.

-0.72%
+0.79pp
Neutral lagging · 31 Dec 2024 IMF Fiscal Monitor via DBnomics annual · quantitative

Government Debt to GDP D4a

78.0% at Q2 2026, unchanged: +2.77% on Q1's 75.9% and +1.30% on a year earlier. The September Bulletin landed on 29 September, and the recompute from the Reserve Bank's codes reproduced 78.0 with no revision.

The ratio is rising. The Bulletin's release did not move your Q2, so bearish stands on what the number says. The recompute reads the same Reserve Bank codes again and is not an independent second source; the check that would count is National Treasury's own figure, published with the budget documents.

78.0%
+1.00pp
Bearish current · 30 Jun 2026 SARB Web API quarterly · quantitative

Tax Collection, Fiscal Year to Date D4c

R819.78bn collected five months into FY2026/27, from the August statement and unchanged; September's is due at the end of October. Against R759.58bn at the same point of FY2025/26, the pace is +7.93%, up from +7.30% after four months.

Measured the way you asked, against the same point of the previous fiscal year, revenue is running eight per cent ahead, and the margin widened in August. It is still the one fiscal line on your board working in your favour.

R820bn
+7.9%
Bullish current · 31 Aug 2026 National Treasury monthly Statement of Revenue, Expenditure and Borrowing monthly · quantitative

CPI Inflation (y/y) D4d

4.5% year-on-year in September 2026, carried by the Reserve Bank's CPI1000F code on 21 October: up from August's 4.4% and July's 4.3%, and from 3.4% a year earlier. It sits exactly on the 4.5% midpoint of the Reserve Bank's band.

Neutral holds. September was the first month to carry the oil shock, and inflation rose by a tenth of a point, to the midpoint of the Reserve Bank's band. That is a small pass-through for crude almost ninety per cent dearer than a year ago, and not the jump that would make this row bearish. It is a second rising month, and inflation is now level with the target rather than under it. Brent fell 8% in the week to 20 October; if that holds, it eases the pressure on the months ahead.

4.50%
+1.10pp
Neutral current · 30 Sept 2026 SARB Web API monthly · quantitative

Real 10-Year Bond Yield D4d

4.48% at 2026-09-30, quoted from scripts/derived.mjs: nominal 8.98% less September inflation of 4.5%. The reading was 4.41% at the August join.

The join moved forward a month with the September inflation print, and the real yield rose 7bps. The nominal leg did it: 8.98% at the end of September against 8.81% at the end of August, more than offsetting a tenth more inflation. A real long yield near four and a half per cent is still a steep price for money. Neutral.

4.48%
-1.76pp
Neutral current · 30 Sept 2026 Computed at build time monthly · derived

Net Capital Inflows D4e

-R1.92bn in Q2 2026, from the September Bulletin and unchanged, against +R23.06bn in Q1 and +R1.87bn a year earlier. A small net outflow on the financial account.

Neutral. The capital arriving in Q1 did not arrive in Q2, but a two-billion-rand outflow is close to balance and not a flight. It is a statement about the quarter that ended in June; the Federal Reserve's September rise is not in it yet.

R-2bn
R-4bn
Neutral current · 30 Jun 2026 SARB Web API quarterly · quantitative

Current Account Balance D4b

-0.29% of GDP in Q2 2026, from the September Bulletin and unchanged. In that Bulletin Q1 was restated from +0.13% to +0.06%, Q4 2025 from -0.40% to -0.45%, and Q3 2025 from -0.80% to -0.85%. A year earlier the balance read -0.80%.

Context rather than headline, by your own instruction. Neutral: the surplus has gone, and the restatement shrank the Q1 surplus to almost nothing. A deficit under a third of a per cent is still smaller than any in the year before it. Brent, almost ninety per cent dearer than a year ago, is not yet fully in this number.

-0.29%
+0.51pp
Neutral current · 30 Jun 2026 SARB Web API quarterly · quantitative

Economy D5, D7

Unemployment Rate D5

33.31% in Q2 2025 is still the last print on your record, now 486 days old. The ILO mirror this row is drawn from refused tonight's request for this series (HTTP 403), the first time it has done so in this run of cycles; the youth series from the same mirror was served and is unchanged. When this series was last read, on 28 October, the mirror gave Q1 2026 at 30.97% and Q2 2026 at 32.34%, with nothing for the two quarters between, and we have not added either figure. Statistics South Africa's own release of 11 August puts the official rate at 32.7% in Q1 and 33.6% in Q2, so the mirror reads 1.3 to 1.7 points below the survey it is built from. A year ago the two agreed to about a tenth of a point.

Neutral stays as a statement about the record, which did not change. Tonight's refusal changes nothing on your board, because the held-back figures were never going to be added by an overnight run; it does mean that if the refusal persists, the mirror cannot be re-read at all. The figures are held back because your record is append-only, and a figure once added is not quietly removed. Added as they stand, they would show unemployment a point lower than a year ago, while the official count says it is higher: 33.6% against 33.2% in Q2 2025. Whether to take the mirror's figures, correct them or move this row to another source is a decision for a person and not for an overnight run. It is still the first item on our list, and it has not yet been made.

33.31%
-0.18pp
Neutral stale · 30 Jun 2025 ILOSTAT SDMX quarterly · quantitative

Youth Unemployment Rate (15–34) D5

46.23% in Q2 2025 is still the last print on your record, up from 46.11% the quarter before and now 486 days old. The same mirror was read again on 29 October and still gives Q1 2026 at 43.70% and Q2 2026 at 45.64%, computed from its counts the way this row always has been, with the two quarters between skipped. We have again not added them. Statistics South Africa's release of 11 August gives the rate for ages 15 to 34 as 47.4% in Q2 2026, up 1.5 points on the quarter, with 5.0 million young people unemployed.

Bearish stands on the record: nearly half of young South Africans were not working at the last count you hold, and the count was rising. The mirror and the official release disagree on the level by almost two points, which is why the mirror's figures are held back. They agree on the direction: youth unemployment rose between the first and second quarters of this year, and the official rate is above where your record ends. This is the series you told us mattered most, so a person will settle which source carries it before any number moves on this row. That decision is still open.

46.23%
-0.41pp
Bearish stale · 30 Jun 2025 ILOSTAT SDMX quarterly · quantitative

GDP Growth D7

2.03% year-on-year in Q1 2026, unchanged and 212 days old. Up from 1.53% in Q4 2025 and 0.41% a year earlier, the strongest reading since 2022. The IMF mirror this series is drawn from still ends at Q1; the September Bulletin is not yet reflected in it.

The one domestic structural series still improving at the last count. The Bulletin's rise in fixed investment is consistent with growth holding up in Q2, but this row moves only when the mirror carries the Q2 print.

2.03%
+1.62pp
Bullish lagging · 31 Mar 2026 FRED keyless CSV quarterly · quantitative

Institutions D8

State-Capture & Corruption Prosecutions D8a

Score 50 as at 28 October 2026, unchanged from 28 September. No senior conviction in the window. Former Speaker Mapisa-Nqakula failed to appear when her trial resumed on 2 October; an arrest warrant is held over to 11 November. The former Transnet executives are asking the High Court to strike their case from the roll for delay, and it has not ruled. The Presidency put recoveries since the Zondo Commission at R17.2bn, R8.2bn through the prosecuting authority. Scored monthly; the next score is due around 28 November.

Bearish on the question you put: are prosecutions landing? For a second month none landed, and the two senior trials still running went backwards: one accused did not come to court, and the other case may be struck off. The score holds at your scale's midpoint because the charges are still before the courts and nothing was withdrawn this month. What would move it down is the Transnet case being struck off; what would move it up is a senior conviction, and none is close.

50/100
-5.00pp
Bearish current · 28 Oct 2026 Research cycle monthly · qualitative

State Capture: Expansion or Reduction D8b

Score 45 as at 28 August 2026, 62 days old. Quarterly cadence: not due until late November.

An unchanged situation observed at the series' own cadence is the honest reading, and nothing this run touched it.

45/100
—
Neutral current · 28 Aug 2026 Research cycle quarterly · qualitative

Your funds D9

Allan Gray Balanced Fund D9a

R424.00 at 30 September 2026, 29 days old. -2.82% on August's R436.30, which was the record, and the largest monthly fall since March (-3.04%). +8.94% over twelve months from R389.20, and +4.87% since the end of December. The fund's benchmark fell further in September, -3.69%, and is +3.05% over twelve months.

Neutral, from bullish. The bullish call rested on fourteen per cent over a year. September took almost three per cent off the fund in the month your share market lost almost seven, and the twelve-month return is now under nine per cent: still about four and a half points ahead of inflation at 4.5%, and still well ahead of the benchmark it is measured against. A falling month against a year that remains comfortably positive is a mixed reading, and we call mixed readings neutral elsewhere on your board. This is a total-return series, so nothing is missing from the figure.

R424.00
+8.9%
Neutral current · 30 Sept 2026 Allan Gray fund performance CSV monthly · quantitative

Allan Gray Balanced benchmark — SA Multi Asset High Equity average D9a

R182.60
+3.0%
awaiting reading current · 30 Sept 2026 Allan Gray fund performance CSV monthly · quantitative

Investec FR Enhanced Income Fund (A) D9b

100.46c
+0.0%
awaiting reading current · 28 Oct 2026 ProfileData FundsData Online daily · quantitative

Investec FR Active Income Fund of Funds (B) D9c

107.65c on Wednesday 28 October, +0.06% on the day from 107.59c. +0.23% on the week from 107.40c on 21 October, +0.71% over one month from 106.89c on 28 September and +1.25% over twelve months from 106.32c; 0.07% below the 30 January record of 107.73c.

An income fund doing what an income fund does, and within a tenth of a per cent of its record price. The twelve-month price figure is well under inflation at 4.5%, but the monthly distributions that close the gap are not in this series. Neutral, and we still cannot show you the total return.

107.65c
+1.3%
Neutral current · 28 Oct 2026 ProfileData FundsData Online daily · quantitative

Investec FR Balanced Fund of Funds (B) D9d

254.02c on Wednesday 28 October, +0.60% on the day from 252.50c. +0.64% on the week from 252.41c on 21 October, +0.90% over one month from 251.76c on 28 September and +2.30% over twelve months from 248.32c; 4.19% below the 27 February record of 265.12c.

Neutral holds. The fund had its best day in some weeks on Wednesday, and all three windows are now higher. The twelve-month figure is still below inflation, 4.5% for September, but this is a price return. The fund goes ex-distribution each 30 June and 31 December, so what you earned is higher than the series shows, and that is why the row is not bearish.

254.02c
+2.3%
Neutral current · 28 Oct 2026 ProfileData FundsData Online daily · quantitative

Investec FR World Axis Core Feeder Fund (B) D9e

149.13c on Wednesday 28 October, +1.28% on the day from 147.25c. +1.66% on the week from 146.69c on 21 October, -0.88% over one month from 150.45c on 28 September and -1.12% over twelve months from 150.82c; 2.71% below the 15 May record of 153.29c.

Bearish holds on the rule we set, though Wednesday closed a third of the gap. This fund declares no distributions, so its twelve-month price return is its total return. At -1.12% it is more than five and a half points behind inflation, 4.5% for September. The row turns neutral when the gap to inflation closes, which at today's inflation means a price above about 157.6c.

149.13c
-1.1%
Bearish current · 28 Oct 2026 ProfileData FundsData Online daily · quantitative

HSBC Balanced Fund (Institutional Accumulation) D9f

£4.0906
+10.1%
awaiting reading current · 29 Oct 2026 FT fund tearsheet chart series daily · quantitative

HSBC Balanced Fund (Institutional Accumulation), in rand D9f

R90.65
+8.0%
awaiting reading current · 29 Oct 2026 derived daily · derived

Allan Gray Balanced — calendar-year total return D9a

24.10% for calendar 2025, quoted from scripts/derived.mjs and unchanged, against its benchmark's 19.10%: five points of outperformance.

The best calendar year on your funds board, and ahead of the benchmark it is measured against. Bullish; the next reading cannot come before the end of December.

24.10%
+20.50pp
Bullish current · 31 Dec 2025 derived annual · derived

Allan Gray Balanced benchmark — calendar-year total return D9a

19.10%
+13.40pp
awaiting reading current · 31 Dec 2025 derived annual · derived

Investec FR Enhanced Income — calendar-year total return (A) D9b

6.8% in calendar 2025, unchanged. Down from 7.8% in 2024, on a five-year rise from 4.7% in 2020.

Above inflation, below last year, and behaving as an enhanced-income fund should while rates came down. Neutral. Policy has now turned upward, which over time works in this fund's favour.

6.80%
+2.10pp
Neutral current · 31 Dec 2025 Investec MDD annual · quantitative

55% of STeFI call deposit index — calendar-year return D9b

3.90%
+1.40pp
awaiting reading current · 31 Dec 2025 Investec MDD annual · quantitative

Investec FR Active Income FoF — calendar-year total return (A) D9c

10.4% in calendar 2025, unchanged. Up from 10.1% in 2024 and 5.4% in 2020.

Double digits from an income fund, and improving. Bullish on the calendar-year record, which for these funds is the total-return record.

10.40%
+5.00pp
Bullish current · 31 Dec 2025 Investec MDD annual · quantitative

STeFI Composite Index — calendar-year return D9c

7.50%
+2.10pp
awaiting reading current · 31 Dec 2025 Investec MDD annual · quantitative

Investec FR Balanced FoF — calendar-year total return (A) D9d

18.8% in calendar 2025, unchanged. Up from 16.4% in 2024 and 7.7% in 2020.

The strongest of your Investec funds on the annual record as well as the daily one, and rising. Bullish.

18.80%
+11.10pp
Bullish current · 31 Dec 2025 Investec MDD annual · quantitative

(ASISA) SA Multi Asset Medium Equity — calendar-year return D9d

17.70%
+12.30pp
awaiting reading current · 31 Dec 2025 Investec MDD annual · quantitative

Investec FR World Axis Core Feeder — calendar-year total return (A) D9e

4.9% in calendar 2025, unchanged. Down from 11.3% in 2024 and 20.8% in 2023, the fund's whole three-year record.

Two consecutive years of falling returns, the latest barely clearing inflation, and the daily price agrees. Three observations is a short record, so this is about the direction it has held, not a longer trend we cannot see.

4.90%
-15.90pp
Bearish current · 31 Dec 2025 Investec MDD annual · quantitative

(ASISA) Global Multi Asset High Equity — calendar-year return D9e

4.80%
-17.00pp
awaiting reading current · 31 Dec 2025 Investec MDD annual · quantitative

United States X1

US Federal Funds Rate X1a

3.88% through Wednesday 28 October, level on the day, the week and the month, holding at the rate set by the 16 September rise to a 3.75–4% target range. Twelve months reads 24bps lower, from 4.12%.

Bearish holds. A tightening cycle has begun, and that is a headwind for every emerging-market asset you hold. The rate has not come back down since the September rise. The long yield closed Wednesday at 5.05%, 1.17 points above the policy rate, and it is still lower than a month ago (see that row).

3.88%
-0.24pp
Bearish current · 28 Oct 2026 FRED keyless CSV daily · quantitative

S&P 500 X1b

7,743.98 on Wednesday 28 October is still the latest close we hold; our source had not published Thursday's close when it was read tonight. That print was +0.28% on the day from Tuesday's 7,722.60, a third higher session. Against the Wednesday before it reads -0.17% from 7,757.17, one month +0.78% from 7,683.69 on 28 September and twelve months +12.38% from 6,890.89; 0.96% below the record close of 7,818.93 on 6 October.

Bullish holds on the same print as last night, because there is no new one. The rule is the month positive on the price, and it is: up 0.78% on the month, and Wednesday's close is above 25 September's 7,743.41 as well, so the call does not rest on the calendar roll alone. The week is fractionally lower, so this is still a thin bullish call. A close below 7,683.69 at the present comparison would take it back to neutral; Thursday's close will be read tomorrow.

7,744
+12.4%
Bullish current · 28 Oct 2026 FRED keyless CSV daily · quantitative

US 10-Year Treasury Yield X1c

5.05% on Wednesday 28 October, +6bps on the day from Tuesday's 4.99%, and 26bps below the record 5.31% of 5 October. The week reads -8bps from 5.13% on 21 October, one month -19bps from 5.24% on 28 September, and twelve months +106bps from 3.99%.

Neutral holds for a fourth session. The test for lifting the bearish call was a close below the month-ago level with the week still lower, and both still hold, though Wednesday's rise ate into both margins. The year is now more than a full point higher and the yield is within a quarter of a point of its record, so this is a bearish call lapsing, not American money getting cheap. A close back above 5.24%, the present month-ago level, would restore it.

5.05%
+1.06pp
Neutral current · 28 Oct 2026 FRED keyless CSV daily · quantitative

SA–US 10-Year Yield Spread X1c

374bps at the 2026-10-28 join, quoted from scripts/derived.mjs: SA 8.79%, US 5.05%, both legs on the same day; 8bps narrower than the 382bps of the 27 October join (SA -2bps, US +6bps). At the join the week is 2bps narrower (from 376bps on 21 October; SA -10bps, US -8bps); one month 10bps narrower (from 384bps on 28 September; SA -29bps, US -19bps); twelve months 164bps narrower (from 538bps on 28 October 2025; SA -58bps, US +106bps).

Neutral holds, but this is the closest the row has come to the shape you described as extraordinarily good. On Wednesday your yield fell while America's rose, and the spread narrowed eight basis points for that reason alone. Over the month the spread is narrower for the first time in weeks, and South Africa's fall did more of it than America's: 29 basis points against 19. What stops us calling it bullish is that both yields are falling over the month, so America is not holding steady, and the last time a single day gave this shape, on 21 October, it reversed the next session. Over the year most of the narrowing is still America's rise, 106 of 164bps. If the month keeps narrowing with your yield doing the work while America's holds or rises, we will call it.

374bps
-164.00bps
Neutral current · 28 Oct 2026 Computed at build time daily · derived

China & India X2–X3

China GDP Growth X2a

5.0% year-on-year in Q1 2026, unchanged and 212 days old. Up from 4.5% in Q4 2025, down from 5.4% a year earlier.

Recovered from the Q4 low and slower than a year ago; neither direction is established. The demand side of your commodity exposure is neither helping nor hurting.

5.0%
-0.40pp
Neutral lagging · 31 Mar 2026 DBnomics quarterly · quantitative

SA Mineral/Commodity Exports to China X2b

$1.424bn in June 2026, the highest month on your record (since 2016). +19.76% on May's $1.189bn and +32.22% on June 2025's $1.077bn. The print is 121 days old.

Bullish holds. The year-on-year gain is about a third. The figure describes June, not now, but June was the best month the China leg has had.

$1.42bn
+32.2%
Bullish lagging · 30 Jun 2026 IMF IMTS monthly · quantitative

India GDP Growth X3a

7.96% year-on-year in Q1 2026, unchanged and 212 days old. Up from 7.12% a year earlier, a third consecutive quarter at or above 7.8%.

The strongest and steadiest growth number on your board. Bullish on India as a demand source, with the caveat that your export line to it is well under half the size of the China leg.

7.96%
+0.84pp
Bullish lagging · 31 Mar 2026 DBnomics quarterly · quantitative

SA Mineral/Commodity Exports to India X3b

$0.339bn in June 2026, unchanged: -29.37% on May's $0.48bn, a third consecutive monthly fall, but +32.94% on June 2025's $0.255bn. The print is 121 days old.

Up strongly on the year and down sharply on the month, and small beside the China leg. The monthly line on this series swings widely, so the two directions cancel. Neutral.

$0.34bn
+32.9%
Neutral lagging · 30 Jun 2026 IMF IMTS monthly · quantitative

Commodities X4

Gold Price X4a

$4,163.40 on 29 September is the last price we hold, thirty days old. The LBMA price file refused every request for a twenty-ninth cycle (HTTP 403 from its Cloudflare front), so 30 September and 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 26, 27, 28 and 29 October are all missing. An earlier run ruled out our browser-backed fetcher and the Wayback Machine as ways round it. At that last print the price was -3.84% on the week, -8.75% over thirty days and +8.79% over twelve months.

Unjudged. The price is old enough that the board shows only its age, and this row describes the last print, not where gold is today. Twenty-two trading days are missing. Your mining index ended those sessions 6.79% lower, but it is not a gold price and we have not used it as one. The fault is in our source, not the market, and fixing it is our job.

$4,163.4
+8.8%
stale · 29 Sept 2026 LBMA Precious Metal Prices daily · quantitative

Platinum Price X4b

$1,690.25 on 29 September is the last price we hold, thirty days old. The LBMA price file refused every request for a twenty-ninth cycle (HTTP 403), so 30 September and 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 26, 27, 28 and 29 October are missing. An earlier run ruled out the browser-backed fetcher and the Wayback Machine as ways round it. At that last print the price was -6.83% on the week, -10.28% over thirty days and +6.37% over twelve months.

Unjudged. The price is old enough that the board shows only its age, and this row describes the last print, not where platinum is today. At that print the year's margin was shrinking fast and the row was close to turning; twenty-two missing days are enough to cross that line unseen. The fault is in our source, not the market.

$1,690.25
+6.4%
stale · 29 Sept 2026 LBMA/LPPM Platinum PM Price daily · quantitative

Brent Crude Oil X4c

$123.10 on Tuesday 27 October, from the weekly release of the US Energy Information Administration that our source mirrors, which added five days at once: $117.37, $125.39, $128.30, $128.12 and $123.10 for 21 to 27 October. -3.92% on the day from $128.12; +6.84% on the week from $115.22 on 20 October, +6.11% over one month from $116.01 on 25 September and +87.88% over twelve months from $65.52; 10.93% below the 7 April high of $138.21.

Bearish holds, and the week's fall we reported last time has reversed. Crude rose more than $13 in three sessions to $128.30 on 23 October before easing, and it is higher than a month ago again. It is still almost ninety per cent dearer than a year ago, and South Africa imports its oil, so the pressure on your inflation and current account has not eased. The release left Friday 2 October at $135.51 for a fourth time without restating it, so it stands as published, and the call does not rest on it.

$123.1
+87.9%
Bearish current · 27 Oct 2026 FRED keyless CSV daily · quantitative

Copper Price X4d

$14,560 on Thursday 29 October, -0.79% on the day from Wednesday's $14,675.50; 1.95% below the 17 August record of $14,850. Against the Thursday before it reads +2.43% from $14,215, one month +0.59% from $14,474.50 on 29 September and twelve months +31.56% from $11,067.50.

Bullish holds. Your cleanest read on global industrial demand gave back most of a per cent on Thursday but is still higher on the week and the month and almost a third up on twelve months. The price is two per cent from its record.

$14,560
+31.6%
Bullish current · 29 Oct 2026 Westmetall market data table daily · quantitative

Manganese Ore Price X4e

$4.44/dmtu realised in the quarter to 30 September 2026, from the Jupiter Mines quarterly report published on 30 October, Australian time: -10.30% on Q2's $4.95, the first quarterly fall after three rises, and +15.03% on a year earlier, $3.86. Jupiter puts the fall down to weak demand in China, increased South African exports and high port stocks, and reports the spot price at $4.21 on 30 September and $4.28 at the end of October.

Neutral, from bullish. The call was bullish on the direction, and the direction turned: the realised price fell ten per cent in the quarter, and the producer itself says demand in China is weak. The year is still up fifteen per cent, so this is a falling quarter against a rising year, the mixed reading we call neutral elsewhere on your board. The spot price Jupiter quotes for the end of October is below the quarter's average, so the next print is more likely to fall than rise. The label you accepted stays in plain view: this is one producer's realised price, a proxy, not a market benchmark.

$4.44
+15.0%
Neutral current · 30 Sept 2026 Jupiter Mines quarterly · quantitative

Currencies X5

Pound / Rand X5a

R22.161 to the pound on Thursday 29 October, 0.18% softer on the day from Wednesday's R22.121. Against the Thursday before it is 0.32% softer from R22.091; one month is 2.19% softer from R21.686 on 29 September, and twelve months 1.95% firmer, from R22.601.

Neutral holds, but the bearish line is closer again. The call turns bearish on a month more than three per cent softer. The month comparison moved on to 29 September, when the rand was firmer than on the 28th, so the month's softness grew from 1.74% to 2.19% with only a small move on the day. The line now sits at about R22.34, 0.8% above Thursday's fixing. The year's margin has also shrunk, from 3.41% firmer to 1.95%, for the same calendar reason.

22.16
-1.9%
Neutral current · 29 Oct 2026 Frankfurter daily · quantitative

Swiss Franc / Rand X5b

R20.084 to the franc on Thursday 29 October, 0.20% softer on the day from Wednesday's R20.043. Against the Thursday before it is level, 0.03% firmer from R20.091; one month is 2.22% softer from R19.6477 on 29 September, and twelve months 6.38% firmer, from R21.453.

Neutral holds. The call needs all three windows firmer, and the month is more than two per cent softer; the week is level. The year is still more than six per cent firmer. The bearish line, a month more than three per cent softer, sits at about R20.24, 0.8% above Thursday's fixing, after the month comparison moved on to a firmer day.

20.08
-6.4%
Neutral current · 29 Oct 2026 Frankfurter daily · quantitative

US Dollar / Rand X5c

R16.6413 to the dollar on Thursday 29 October, 0.04% firmer on the day from Wednesday's R16.6477. Against the Thursday before it is 0.76% softer from R16.5157; one month is 1.65% softer from R16.3705 on 29 September, and twelve months 2.72% firmer, from R17.1058.

Neutral holds. The week and the month are both softer, but the month's 1.65% is well inside the three per cent line, and the year is almost three per cent firmer. The row turns bearish above about R16.86 at the present comparison, and bullish only with the month firmer, below about R16.37.

16.64
-2.7%
Neutral current · 29 Oct 2026 Frankfurter daily · quantitative

The spread, decomposed X1c

The brief's counterintuitive rule: a narrowing spread is only good news if it narrows because SA yields fell, not because US yields rose. So the two legs get their own panel, on a shared % axis, above the spread itself. Two units never share one plot.

The two legs% yield
SA 10-yearUS 10-year
4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%8.8%5.0%
The spreadbasis points
350400450500550374Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26
Table view — the numbers behind this chart
DateSA − US
28 Oct 2026374bps
27 Oct 2026382bps
26 Oct 2026384bps
23 Oct 2026384bps
22 Oct 2026386bps
21 Oct 2026376bps
20 Oct 2026384bps
19 Oct 2026376bps
16 Oct 2026383bps
15 Oct 2026384bps
14 Oct 2026375bps
13 Oct 2026378bps
9 Oct 2026379bps
8 Oct 2026388bps
7 Oct 2026379bps
6 Oct 2026381bps
5 Oct 2026380bps
2 Oct 2026379bps
1 Oct 2026381bps
30 Sept 2026369bps
29 Sept 2026383bps
28 Sept 2026384bps
25 Sept 2026379bps
23 Sept 2026372bps
22 Sept 2026389bps
21 Sept 2026391bps
18 Sept 2026385bps
17 Sept 2026407bps
16 Sept 2026402bps
15 Sept 2026411bps
14 Sept 2026407bps
11 Sept 2026405bps
10 Sept 2026399bps
9 Sept 2026408bps
8 Sept 2026407bps
4 Sept 2026405bps
3 Sept 2026413bps
2 Sept 2026417bps
1 Sept 2026415bps
31 Aug 2026406bps
28 Aug 2026404bps
27 Aug 2026409bps
26 Aug 2026404bps
25 Aug 2026417bps
24 Aug 2026416bps
21 Aug 2026411bps
20 Aug 2026411bps
19 Aug 2026416bps
18 Aug 2026412bps
17 Aug 2026403bps
14 Aug 2026403bps
13 Aug 2026408bps
12 Aug 2026402bps
11 Aug 2026397bps
7 Aug 2026399bps
6 Aug 2026391bps
5 Aug 2026400bps
4 Aug 2026413bps
3 Aug 2026411bps
31 Jul 2026412bps

Showing the most recent 60 of 242 observations in this window.

Neutral374bps at the 2026-10-28 join, quoted from scripts/derived.mjs: SA 8.79%, US 5.05%, both legs on the same day; 8bps narrower than the 382bps of the 27 October join (SA -2bps, US +6bps). At the join the week is 2bps narrower (from 376bps on 21 October; SA -10bps, US -8bps); one month 10bps narrower (from 384bps on 28 September; SA -29bps, US -19bps); twelve months 164bps narrower (from 538bps on 28 October 2025; SA -58bps, US +106bps).Neutral holds, but this is the closest the row has come to the shape you described as extraordinarily good. On Wednesday your yield fell while America's rose, and the spread narrowed eight basis points for that reason alone. Over the month the spread is narrower for the first time in weeks, and South Africa's fall did more of it than America's: 29 basis points against 19. What stops us calling it bullish is that both yields are falling over the month, so America is not holding steady, and the last time a single day gave this shape, on 21 October, it reversed the next session. Over the year most of the narrowing is still America's rise, 106 of 164bps. If the month keeps narrowing with your yield doing the work while America's holds or rises, we will call it.

The master signal D2

"The key to South African prosperity is private as well as public sector fixed investment." Rising = bullish, falling = bearish — your own rule, so the level chart carries the split you asked for and the delta chart carries the early warning.

Gross fixed capital formation% of GDP · quarterly
Private businessPublic corporationsGeneral government
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%2016Q32018Q22020Q12021Q42023Q32025Q22026Q2
Table view — the numbers behind this chart
DatePrivate businessPublic corporationsGeneral government
30 Jun 20269.49%1.63%2.58%
31 Mar 20269.13%1.61%2.45%
31 Dec 20259.72%1.48%2.33%
30 Sept 20259.85%1.41%2.49%
30 Jun 202510.15%1.47%2.40%
31 Mar 20259.90%1.89%2.46%
31 Dec 202410.27%1.48%2.44%
30 Sept 202410.39%1.58%2.60%
30 Jun 202410.60%1.62%2.49%
31 Mar 202410.45%1.71%2.48%
31 Dec 202310.78%1.66%2.37%
30 Sept 202310.80%1.59%2.57%
30 Jun 202311.08%1.68%2.56%
31 Mar 202310.46%1.59%2.61%
31 Dec 202210.55%1.52%2.55%
30 Sept 202210.36%1.47%2.44%
30 Jun 202210.12%1.43%2.46%
31 Mar 20229.99%1.40%2.42%
31 Dec 20219.61%1.39%2.37%
30 Sept 20219.42%1.39%2.34%
30 Jun 20219.18%1.37%2.29%
31 Mar 20219.31%1.42%2.35%
31 Dec 20209.81%1.39%2.39%
30 Sept 20209.80%1.40%2.42%
30 Jun 20209.39%1.44%2.72%
31 Mar 202010.51%1.61%2.27%
31 Dec 201910.84%1.70%2.46%
30 Sept 201911.23%1.82%2.56%
30 Jun 201910.90%1.84%2.72%
31 Mar 201911.11%1.91%2.82%
31 Dec 201810.73%1.97%2.81%
30 Sept 201810.95%2.07%2.85%
30 Jun 201810.94%2.16%2.86%
31 Mar 201811.21%2.27%2.88%
31 Dec 201711.18%2.34%2.92%
30 Sept 201710.75%2.34%3.14%
30 Jun 201710.65%2.47%3.05%
31 Mar 201711.09%2.60%3.07%
31 Dec 201611.32%2.66%3.13%
30 Sept 201610.84%2.67%3.34%
Acceleration — quarter-on-quarter changepercentage points
-1-0.5+0.52016Q32018Q22020Q12021Q42023Q32025Q22026Q2
Table view — the numbers behind this chart
DateQuarter-on-quarter change
30 Jun 20260.50%
31 Mar 2026-0.33%
31 Dec 2025-0.22%
30 Sept 2025-0.27%
30 Jun 2025-0.23%
31 Mar 20250.06%
31 Dec 2024-0.38%
30 Sept 2024-0.14%
30 Jun 20240.08%
31 Mar 2024-0.17%
31 Dec 2023-0.16%
30 Sept 2023-0.36%
30 Jun 20230.66%
31 Mar 20230.04%
31 Dec 20220.35%
30 Sept 20220.26%
30 Jun 20220.20%
31 Mar 20220.44%
31 Dec 20210.23%
30 Sept 20210.29%
30 Jun 2021-0.22%
31 Mar 2021-0.52%
31 Dec 2020-0.03%
30 Sept 20200.07%
30 Jun 2020-0.84%
31 Mar 2020-0.61%
31 Dec 2019-0.61%
30 Sept 20190.16%
30 Jun 2019-0.38%
31 Mar 20190.32%
31 Dec 2018-0.37%
30 Sept 2018-0.09%
30 Jun 2018-0.39%
31 Mar 2018-0.09%
31 Dec 20170.23%
30 Sept 20170.05%
30 Jun 2017-0.59%
31 Mar 2017-0.35%
31 Dec 20160.26%
30 Sept 2016-1.20%

Bullish13.7% of GDP in Q2 2026, unchanged since the September Quarterly Bulletin of 29 September: +0.50 points on Q1's 13.2% and the first rise after four consecutive falls (14.25, 14.02, 13.75, 13.53, 13.2). All three legs rose: private business 9.13 → 9.49, public corporations 1.61 → 1.63, general government 2.45 → 2.58. A year earlier the ratio stood at 14.02%.Bullish on the rule you gave us: fixed investment as a share of GDP rising is bullish, and it rose. Most of the rise came from private business, which is what your thesis most needs to see. One quarter does not reverse a year: the ratio is still below Q2 2025, so this is a turn to watch, and the December Bulletin will show whether it holds.

Neutral+0.50 at Q2 2026, quoted from scripts/derived.mjs: the last four quarterly deltas are -0.27, -0.22, -0.33 and +0.50. Persistence false, steepening false, signal none.The early warning you asked for has cleared. It fired on persistence, four negative quarters in a row, and the September Bulletin broke the run with the only positive delta in the last five quarters. It is neutral and not bullish because one positive quarter is a turn, not a trend. If the December Bulletin shows a second positive delta, the acceleration will be real.