SOUNDINGS

A daily reading of the South African investment case

The read, 29 Oct 2026

Fixed Investment (GFCF) as % of GDP D2
13.70%
Bullish
SA–US 10-Year Yield Spread X1c
374bps
Neutral

Equities & bonds D1

Are the All Share, precious-metals and financials indices making progress across the horizons — and what is the sovereign paying to borrow?

Horizon

Is the main index making progress? D1a

FTSE/JSE All Share index points · daily
105k110k115k120k125k130k110kJan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26

In rand, on your instruction (2026-08-30). A dollar toggle — what the JSE did for capital that can leave — is on the nice-to-have list, not a requirement.

Table view — FTSE/JSE All Share
DateAll Share
29 Oct 2026110,039
28 Oct 2026109,759
27 Oct 2026109,820
26 Oct 2026109,130
23 Oct 2026108,020
22 Oct 2026108,526
21 Oct 2026109,658
20 Oct 2026110,399
19 Oct 2026108,995
16 Oct 2026110,934
15 Oct 2026110,172
14 Oct 2026108,515
13 Oct 2026109,408
12 Oct 2026108,760
9 Oct 2026108,525
8 Oct 2026107,109
7 Oct 2026107,104
6 Oct 2026108,882
5 Oct 2026108,327
2 Oct 2026108,378
1 Oct 2026107,763
30 Sept 2026108,507
29 Sept 2026109,441
28 Sept 2026109,105
25 Sept 2026110,826
23 Sept 2026111,565
22 Sept 2026113,349
21 Sept 2026113,112
18 Sept 2026113,003
17 Sept 2026114,157
16 Sept 2026113,551
15 Sept 2026114,021
14 Sept 2026113,536
11 Sept 2026115,165
10 Sept 2026114,993
9 Sept 2026116,520
8 Sept 2026117,462
7 Sept 2026116,989
4 Sept 2026116,726
3 Sept 2026116,688
2 Sept 2026115,082
1 Sept 2026115,856
31 Aug 2026116,257
28 Aug 2026118,173
27 Aug 2026116,806
26 Aug 2026116,814
25 Aug 2026116,828
24 Aug 2026116,712
21 Aug 2026117,748
20 Aug 2026115,659
19 Aug 2026116,051
18 Aug 2026113,324
17 Aug 2026114,673
14 Aug 2026114,061
13 Aug 2026114,115
12 Aug 2026114,981
11 Aug 2026115,943
7 Aug 2026117,518
6 Aug 2026115,306
5 Aug 2026115,416

Showing the most recent 60 of 251 observations in this window.

Neutral 110,038.7 on Thursday 29 October, +0.25% on the day from Wednesday's 109,759. Against the Thursday before it reads +1.39% from 108,525.5, one month +0.55% from 109,440.7 on 29 September and twelve months -0.30% from 110,371.3; 14.34% below the 27 February record of 128,455.7. Neutral holds. The test for turning bearish is a lower week with the month's loss past five per cent, and neither is close: the week is up more than one per cent and the month is a small gain. The year is flat and the index is still more than fourteen per cent under February's record. It is going sideways, not recovering.

The sectors, separately D1b

JSE Precious Metals & Mining index points · daily
110k120k130k140k150k117kAug 26Sept 26Oct 26
JSE Financials index points · daily
55k60k65k64kJan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26

The Mining and Banks indices you asked for froze upstream on 17 July 2026, and on 30 August you chose these substitutes yourself: Precious Metals & Mining in place of Mining, Financials in place of Banks — both broader than the originals, chosen knowingly. Should Mining or Banks come back on stream they return as separate trackers alongside these, not in place of them; their history is kept. Two plots, one above the other, rather than two lines on one — the indices run at very different levels, and on a shared axis the smaller would read as flat.

Table view — JSE Precious Metals & Mining
DatePrecious Metals & Mining
29 Oct 2026116,696
28 Oct 2026116,736
27 Oct 2026116,784
26 Oct 2026116,180
23 Oct 2026114,235
21 Oct 2026121,478
20 Oct 2026122,392
19 Oct 2026121,760
16 Oct 2026125,433
15 Oct 2026122,819
14 Oct 2026119,707
13 Oct 2026123,095
12 Oct 2026122,742
9 Oct 2026123,101
8 Oct 2026120,974
7 Oct 2026119,946
6 Oct 2026123,334
5 Oct 2026124,520
2 Oct 2026125,363
1 Oct 2026125,573
30 Sept 2026125,060
29 Sept 2026125,195
28 Sept 2026122,351
25 Sept 2026131,394
23 Sept 2026132,300
22 Sept 2026135,853
21 Sept 2026136,910
18 Sept 2026138,644
17 Sept 2026142,178
16 Sept 2026139,547
15 Sept 2026138,942
14 Sept 2026139,308
11 Sept 2026145,299
10 Sept 2026145,152
9 Sept 2026148,425
8 Sept 2026149,149
7 Sept 2026150,414
4 Sept 2026147,612
3 Sept 2026148,219
2 Sept 2026143,577
31 Aug 2026144,676
28 Aug 2026151,536
Table view — JSE Financials
DateFinancials
29 Oct 202663,810
28 Oct 202663,316
27 Oct 202663,122
26 Oct 202662,840
23 Oct 202661,971
22 Oct 202662,068
21 Oct 202662,179
20 Oct 202662,418
19 Oct 202661,276
16 Oct 202661,905
15 Oct 202661,901
14 Oct 202660,994
13 Oct 202661,136
12 Oct 202660,448
9 Oct 202660,090
8 Oct 202659,423
7 Oct 202659,871
6 Oct 202661,144
5 Oct 202660,327
2 Oct 202660,587
1 Oct 202659,956
30 Sept 202661,134
29 Sept 202661,588
28 Sept 202661,823
25 Sept 202661,844
23 Sept 202662,396
22 Sept 202662,993
21 Sept 202663,025
18 Sept 202662,514
17 Sept 202662,744
16 Sept 202662,683
15 Sept 202662,981
14 Sept 202662,362
11 Sept 202662,960
10 Sept 202662,658
9 Sept 202663,315
8 Sept 202664,303
7 Sept 202663,884
4 Sept 202664,092
3 Sept 202663,688
2 Sept 202663,228
1 Sept 202663,299
31 Aug 202663,610
28 Aug 202664,051
27 Aug 202663,254
26 Aug 202663,405
25 Aug 202663,494
24 Aug 202662,807
21 Aug 202663,513
20 Aug 202663,415
19 Aug 202664,266
18 Aug 202663,952
17 Aug 202664,478
14 Aug 202664,696
13 Aug 202665,065
12 Aug 202664,621
11 Aug 202664,898
7 Aug 202665,763
6 Aug 202665,858
5 Aug 202665,613

Showing the most recent 60 of 251 observations in this window.

Neutral 63,810.01 on Thursday 29 October, +0.78% on the day from Wednesday's 63,316.08. Against the Thursday before it reads +2.81% from 62,068.22, one month +3.61% from 61,588.08 on 29 September and twelve months +12.10% from 56,923.28; 5.28% below the 26 February record of 67,363.51. Neutral holds, though the case for bullish keeps building. For a fourth session the week, the month and the year are all higher, and all three grew on Thursday; the index is up twelve per cent on the year, where your All Share is flat. We have not set a written test for bullish on this row, and we will not change the call without one; setting it is on our list. The index is still five per cent under its February record.

What is the sovereign paying to borrow? D1a

SA 10-year government bond yield % · daily
8.0%8.5%9.0%9.5%8.8%Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26

The daily average yield on bonds ten years and longer, not a single benchmark bond. This is the SA leg of the spread on the Today page, and the leg the brief’s counterintuitive rule turns on.

Table view — SA 10-year government bond yield
DateSA 10-year
28 Oct 20268.79%
27 Oct 20268.81%
26 Oct 20268.84%
23 Oct 20268.84%
22 Oct 20268.82%
21 Oct 20268.89%
20 Oct 20268.96%
19 Oct 20268.91%
16 Oct 20268.92%
15 Oct 20268.94%
14 Oct 20268.94%
13 Oct 20268.99%
12 Oct 20269.02%
9 Oct 20269.03%
8 Oct 20269.10%
7 Oct 20269.07%
6 Oct 20269.08%
5 Oct 20269.11%
2 Oct 20269.07%
1 Oct 20269.05%
30 Sept 20268.98%
29 Sept 20269.09%
28 Sept 20269.08%
25 Sept 20268.96%
23 Sept 20268.83%
22 Sept 20268.85%
21 Sept 20268.87%
18 Sept 20268.86%
17 Sept 20269.01%
16 Sept 20269.03%
15 Sept 20269.11%
14 Sept 20269.04%
11 Sept 20269.01%
10 Sept 20268.94%
9 Sept 20268.91%
8 Sept 20268.87%
7 Sept 20268.82%
4 Sept 20268.83%
3 Sept 20268.90%
2 Sept 20268.96%
1 Sept 20268.94%
31 Aug 20268.81%
28 Aug 20268.77%
27 Aug 20268.76%
26 Aug 20268.70%
25 Aug 20268.81%
24 Aug 20268.86%
21 Aug 20268.85%
20 Aug 20268.80%
19 Aug 20268.81%
18 Aug 20268.83%
17 Aug 20268.75%
14 Aug 20268.71%
13 Aug 20268.71%
12 Aug 20268.70%
11 Aug 20268.67%
7 Aug 20268.64%
6 Aug 20268.60%
5 Aug 20268.63%
4 Aug 20268.76%

Showing the most recent 60 of 251 observations in this window.

Neutral 8.79% on Wednesday 28 October, -2bps on the day from Tuesday's 8.81%. The week reads -10bps from 8.89% on 21 October, one month -29bps from 9.08% on 28 September, and twelve months -58bps from 9.37%. Neutral holds. The yield is lower on the day, the week and the month and well below the 9.18% line we set for judging it again. Your spread rule wants it falling while America holds steady, and on Wednesday it did better than that: it fell two basis points while America's rose six. Over the month it has fallen 29 basis points against America's 19, so the spread is narrower on the month for the first time in this run of readings (see the spread row).

Where these numbers come from

SeriesSourceCadenceLatest
JSE All Share IndexYahoo Finance chart API (^J203.JO — FTSE/JSE All Share)daily · quantitative2026-10-29 · current
JSE Precious Metals & Mining IndexYahoo Finance chart API (^JS5513.JO — FTSE/JSE Precious Metals & Mining)daily · quantitative2026-10-29 · current
JSE Financials IndexYahoo Finance chart API (^J580.JO — FTSE/JSE SA Financials)daily · quantitative2026-10-29 · current
SA 10-Year Government Bond YieldSARB Web API — CMJD004A, daily avg govt bond yield 10 years and longerdaily · quantitative2026-10-28 · current